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What is expected for SEM in 2012? Forecast from SEOmoz

2012 has come, and it is possible not only to summarize the past year (which, incidentally, SEOnews made in a series of articles), but also make predictions for the future. Pay attention to  forecast in 2012. Today, the prediction of SEOmoz doesn’t seem as horrible as Forrester Research expectations and SEO professionals shouldn’t panic beforehand. The prediction is made by well-known West expert Rand Fishkin.

What is expected for SEM in 2012? Forecast from SEOmoz
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So, let’s start:

1.      Bing will increase its share of the search market in the USA, but it won’t exceed 20%. Google will seek to achieve 80%

According to the latest comScore, now Google has 65% of the USA search market while only 30% belong to and Yahoo! and Bing. However, according to Rand Fishkin, comScore statistics may be not completely true that’s why he focuses on the resource data Statconter.  According to    the reports of the company, Google share is about 82% while Bing+Yahoo! –approximately 16%. Fishkin suggests that this picture won’t change.

Comment on this forecast SEOnews asked Svetlana Korobova, manager of marketing for online advertising i-Media:

“To predict such a plan –  is a thankless task ... Even the Western experts, who by definition know their (Western) market, is much better than we do – do not coincide in the estimates of the proportion of search engines. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to judge how realistic prediction of Statcounter is”.

Also Svetlana submitted her forecast for search engines development in RuNet:

As for the Russian segment of the Internet, namely the change in share of the largest search engines, I venture to suggest that Google will “pinch” in Yandex few percent (2-4%), so, the share of Yandex will slightly reduce. It happens both through increasing the activity of Google in Russia (promotional activity on television, media, etc.), and due to different Google services (browser Chrome, Google. Maps, social network Google + etc.). With increasing recognition of Google in Russia gradually will grow its share. Also it is worth to note that the tendency, when users resort to search for both search engines will increase, but not limited to only one of them

2.      Excessively aggressive Google contextual advertisement will turn against it

It is going something crazy in the search advertising now. As a proof, Mr. Fishkin gives the following screenshot, which shows that the most part of issuance of contextual ads take an assessment of product by users, links to reviews on this product, pictures and other things. As a consequence, without scrolling, we can see only one organic result.

In 2012, a Google policy can lead to indignation of antitrust service, and under their pressure, Google will be forced to move the entire issue of contextual advertising down. Now organic results still take 80% of clicks and more, however, this figure gradually decreases due to the extensive efforts of Google AdWords, which can’t like other companies.

1.      SEO without social media will be the vestige of the past

Even now we can see that SEO and SMM begin intertwine. According to Rand Fishkin, in 2012 search engine optimization without the use of social networks will be gradually lose its popularity, as it did SEO in 1999-2000 without  using of  links. It's not just that social signals can be taken into account by search engines, as well as the fact that social networks become the primary method of content distribution among Internet users.

In addition, this trend will lead to that proud title “” will turn into something greater.

And whether SEOs develop social networks? Or there must be two different specialists? – The answer to the question gave Tatiana Saltykova, director of development SMM, Ingate :

“I've personally believe that SEOs and SMMs - are different people. Or rather the concept SMMs doesn’t exist. SMM – is a product that requires the participation of many specialists. These are editors, and community managers and PR managers and creators and analysts - and all they are different people. Can SEOs learn all of these areas? In my opinion - is unlikely. But the brand should use these two tools together. Synergy has not been canceled”

2.      Google's position against link spam will be even more severe, we can expect another similarity of Panda

One of the main vulnerabilities of Google - is too much attention and credibility to links as to a significant factor for ranking. However, in 2012, Rand Fishkin is sure the team on the quality of Google search will change the search algorithm so that low-quality links have practically ceased to be evaluated by the search engine. It is very likely that in 2012 the world will see another “Google Panda” and referenced spammers will suffer as well as sites with poor content in 2011.

"Rumors that some search engine refuses link (or most of the links), go long. And regularly pop up – shared their opinions with SEOnews Oleg Sakhno, chief marketing specialist in "Interlabs."

But so far there is no automated method of forming the issue, if not include links. Fashion social cues or history of search activity is not soon become at least as a meaningful alternative links. Do not forget that the search is frequently used by unauthorized users, for whom there is no information on recommendations of friends, etc. and these users search for low-frequency queries for which there are only 1-2 references. For this anonymous search issue is based on the reference count, whatever it was. I do not argue, the Page Rank model outlived its usefulness long ago, but its modifications will be used for a very long time"

3.      The number of encrypted requests will be more than 25%

When Google started actively support the SSL-protocol, it promised to webmasters that the number of encrypted (and therefore inaccessible) data at the request of the logged in user won’t exceed 12% of the total. However, many companies have repeatedly complained that the search engine encrypts many more requests than promised, such as 25%. According to Mr. Fishkin, by December 2012, Google may significantly increase the number of encrypted data (almost 75%), and the webmasters will be available to analyze only a quarter of all searches that gains logged in Google users.

4.      To promote site to Google without Google + will be very problematically

User profiles Google +, circles, and the button of evaluation +1 have already displayed in Google search results. In 2012, Google will try to link its search and social network more tightly. So, it won’t only encourage users to use Google + actively, but also give more opportunities to link together the social cues, ranking factors. And besides, this integration may be useful for Google against spam. For those who skillfully uses search engine optimization in tandem with social networks, it is certainly good news.

Predictions from Econsultancy

In addition, Western experts believe that in 2012, SEO professionals are expected the following trends:

  • Google + will be integrated with all Google services, which makes search results more personalized. By the end of 2012 search engine won’t only consider the number of links in the content, but the dissemination of information in social networks.
  • The ranking factors are added to greater number of signals of quality. Have to focus not only on user behavior, but social signals, authority, and much more other.
  • The approach to the content on this site will be changed to make it a truly credible, also will greatly increase the number of links and tips, reviews, and different opinions.
  • SEOs, finally, will pay due attention to layout of HTML 5 and Schema.org and will actively use it.

As you see, the predictions don’t have anything shocking. In fact, all trends had been outlined back in 2011, and this year it continues to develop. Sam Rand Fishkin believes that SEOs are waiting for an exciting year. What do you think? What will happen with SEO-industry in 2012?


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